Treasury Yield Curve Calculator
Track the Treasury yield curve and see what it signals about the economy
Treasury Yield Curve Calculator
Treasury Yields (%)
Yield Curve Visualization
How the Yield Curve Works
The Treasury yield curve plots interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities (3-month, 2-year, 10-year, 30-year). Normal curve = longer maturity = higher yield. Inverted curve = shorter maturity yields more than longer (usually signals recession coming). Flat = all maturities yield about the same.
Investors and economists watch this closely. An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is it a recession indicator?
Inverted curve = investors expect lower rates in the future because they think the economy will weaken and the Fed will cut rates to stimulate growth.
How accurate is it?
It's preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, though the lag varies (6-18 months). Not perfect—there have been a few false positives where inversion didn't lead to recession.
2-10 spread or 3mo-10yr spread?
2-10 is more popular in media. 3mo-10yr may have fewer false signals and is what the Fed watches more closely. Both are useful.
Should I change my portfolio when it inverts?
Not immediately. Lag time is 6-18 months, so drastic changes right away might be premature. Use it as one signal among many in your overall strategy.
Related Calculators
Bond Calculator
Calculate bond prices, yields, duration, and convexity based on market conditions.
Use Calculator →Inflation Calculator
Understand the impact of inflation on purchasing power and investment returns over time.
Use Calculator →Compound Interest Calculator
Project how your investments will grow over time with compound interest.
Use Calculator →